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Social-Ecological Systems Meta-Analysis Database: Variables

Variable: End condition

Variable TypeOrdinal
Variable Component TypeEnvironmental Common
Variable KindInteraction
ThemeOutcomes (learn about themes)
ProjectsSESMAD
QuestionWhat were the conditions of this commons at the end of the time period being examined?
Select Options1 0-10% of peak stock or 91-100% of maximum pollution level, 2 11-20% of peak stock or 81-90% of maximum pollution level, 3 21-30% of peak stock or 71-80% of maximum pollution level, 4 31-40% of peak stock or 61-70% of maximum pollution level, 5 41-50% of peak stock or 51-60% of maximum pollution level, 6 51-60% of peak stock or 41-50% of maximum pollution level, 7 61-70% of peak stock or 31-40% of maximum pollution level, 8 71-80% of peak stock or 21-30% of maximum pollution level, 9 81-90% of peak stock or 11-20% of maximum pollution level, 10 91-100% of peak stock or 0-10% of maximum pollution level
Unit
Role
ImportanceThis variable enables the coder to record the condition of the commons at the end of the snapshot. This is important because in order to measure the potential impact of a governance system on a commons, it is necessary to know the condition of the commons at the end of a governance-commons snapshot. This variable can be used, in combination with ECBeginningCondition, to measure the change in the commons condition during a governance-commons snapshot. The goal of this variable is to measure the condition of the commons at the end of the snapshot relative to the best or worst possible condition of the commons. This enables comparability of systems which are measured in different terms. For example, we measure the population of Atlantic Bluefin tuna relative to historic populations, the remaining area of Indonesian forests relative to the pre-20th century area of forests in Indonesia, and levels of ozone depleting substances relative to their highest level.
Definition

This variable records the condition of the commons at the end of the snapshot. The condition is measured in terms of a percentage of the peak stock or condition, or of the maximum pollution level.

Sectors

Theory Usages

TheoryValue Used

Associated Studies

Study Citation

Case Usages

CaseInteraction TypeComponentValue UsedExplanation
Forests in IndonesiaGovernanceForests in Indonesia51-60% of peak stock or 41-50% of maximum pollution level (6)Estimates of forest cover for 1998 are not available, but for 2000, estimates place forest cover at just above 50%
Forests in IndonesiaGovernanceForests in Indonesia41-50% of peak stock or 51-60% of maximum pollution level (5)Continued decline from 2000 has resulted in a loss of about 8-10% of forests in Indonesia over the last decade (see Hansen et al. 2013; FAO 2014)
Gulf of Nicoya, Costa Rica fisheries governanceGovernanceGulf of Nicoya fisheriesMissing
Galapagos Marine ReserveBiophysicalGalapagos Sea Cucumber 
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceWestern Atlantic Bluefin Tuna 11-20% of peak stock or 81-90% of maximum pollution level (2)
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceEastern Atlantic Bluefin Tuna71-80% of peak stock or 21-30% of maximum pollution level (8)
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceEastern Atlantic Bluefin Tuna51-60% of peak stock or 41-50% of maximum pollution level (6)
Montreal ProtocolBiophysicalOzone0-10% of peak stock or 91-100% of maximum pollution level (1)The ozone hole was approximately 24.7 million km2, 92.9% of its peak. Once again it must be noted that this was expected.
Montreal ProtocolBiophysicalOzone Depleting Substances91-100% of peak stock or 0-10% of maximum pollution level (10)Production of ODS fell to approximately 2% of peak levels.
Montreal ProtocolGovernanceOzone Depleting Substances91-100% of peak stock or 0-10% of maximum pollution level (10)Emissions fell sharply to approximately 2% of their peak by 2012.
International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR)GovernanceRhine Point source pollutants81-90% of peak stock or 11-20% of maximum pollution level (9)This does not mean that the pollutant concentrations were already acceptable (which where not)
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR coral cover11-20% of peak stock or 81-90% of maximum pollution level (2)
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR coral cover11-20% of peak stock or 81-90% of maximum pollution level (2)Based on De'ath paper: http://www.pnas.org/content/109/44/17995.full
Montreal ProtocolBiophysicalOzone21-30% of peak stock or 71-80% of maximum pollution level (3)
Montreal ProtocolBiophysicalOzone Depleting Substances0-10% of peak stock or 91-100% of maximum pollution level (1)Emissions of ODS peaked at the end of this snapshot
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR target fish 
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceCalifornia Rocky Shores Ecosystem Health71-80% of peak stock or 21-30% of maximum pollution level (8)Pisaster ochraceus was about 40% peak stock in 2010 (MLO, 2015). Biodiversity is affected by poaching (selected biodiversity loss) and so the condition report of 2009 suggested unknown trend in biodiversity. Key species are lower than expected (Condition Report 2009). Overall ecosystem has been healthy over this time period, so believed to have stayed the same.
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR target fish71-80% of peak stock or 21-30% of maximum pollution level (8)
Montreal ProtocolGovernanceOzone Depleting Substances91-100% of peak stock or 0-10% of maximum pollution level (10)Emissions are thought to have peaked at the end of this time period.
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos Sea Cucumber0-10% of peak stock or 91-100% of maximum pollution level (1)Depleted fishery. Post-fishery survey in 2005 estimated density of 0.03 ind/m2 (Hearn et al 2005)
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernancePatagonian Toothfish 61-70% of peak stock or 31-40% of maximum pollution level (7)Estimates suggest that the spawning stock biomass was between 60% and 70% with a point estimate of 68%
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernanceLight Mantled Albatross91-100% of peak stock or 0-10% of maximum pollution level (10)Estimates suggest there are approximately 1200 breeding pairs on Macquarie Island. It is important to note that this is not necessarily peak stock, but historical estimates are not available, but likely exceeded this figure.
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernanceMacquarie Island Royal Penguin91-100% of peak stock or 0-10% of maximum pollution level (10)Estimates suggest that population has remained around the 850,000 breeding pairs estimated in the 1980's, and possibly somewhat increased.
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi coral cover31-40% of peak stock or 61-70% of maximum pollution level (4)Hard coral cover is estimated to be around 35–40% (Clifton 2013)
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi fish spawningMissingNo data on the peak stock / baseline on the expected numbers of spawning fishes
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi Green TurtleMissingNo baseline data
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National MonumentGovernanceNWHI Lobster Fishery0-10% of peak stock or 91-100% of maximum pollution level (1)Since the closure of the fishery there has been no evidence of recovery of either species (O’Malley 2009, 2011) so coded based on beginning condition was has experienced a 87% decline in CPUE before the start of this snap shot.
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos Green Turtle In 2010/2011: Quinta Playa 2339 nests laid, Bahia Barahona 1751 nests laid. (Espinoza 2011)
International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR)BiophysicalRhine Non-point source pollutants 
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos SharksMissing
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National MonumentGovernanceNWHI Trophic Density No data for 'peak stock', but trophic density has always been high in this MPA and remains so at the end of the time period being coded. Considered a near pristine ecosystem.
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National MonumentGovernanceNWHI Green Turtle 2012 = 425 nests/year (Kittenger et al. 2013)
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceCalifornia Humpback Whale91-100% of peak stock or 0-10% of maximum pollution level (10)With an estimate of 22,000 individual humpback whales in the North Pacific, some consider this at peak stock. (I understand there is some debate, need to dig further into this)
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Coral Cover21-30% of peak stock or 71-80% of maximum pollution level (3)Average hard coral cover is 30% (Purwanto et al. 2012).
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Green TurtleMissing
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Reef Fish Missing
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceCalifornia Groundfish Habitat71-80% of peak stock or 21-30% of maximum pollution level (8)Slight improvements in relative spawning biomass of groundfish species (Miller et al. 2009). While historical trawling distribution is largely unknown, it is assumed the end of trawling on sensitive habitats has increased habitat health.
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard Polar Bear Unknown, but likely that population has increased slightly or remained the same during the snap shot. Absence of direct data prevents a reliable answer. (See response about the Commons Condition Trend).
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Southern Right Whale31-40% of peak stock or 61-70% of maximum pollution level (4)The original, unexploited southern right whale population has been estimated to be from 55, 000 - 70, 000 whales in 1770. In 1997, it was estimated that 17%, or around 1200, of the global southern right whale population occurred in Australia (based on a global abundance of 7000) (IWC 2001). If this number is correct, the southern right whale population in Australian at the end of the time period being examined (2012) is 28 - 35 % of the original, unexploited population numbers (~3283 whales in 2012 compared to an original, unexploited population of 9, 350 - 11, 900 in Australia (based on IWC 17% estimation)).
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard Shrimp61-70% of peak stock or 31-40% of maximum pollution level (7)Although Norwegians and Russians conducted independent surveys from 1980-2004, in 2004 they began a joint survey effort. Comparing the joint surveys with the country based survey likely provides useful results, but there may be discrepancies based on surveying locations and methodology.
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Southern Bluefin Tuna0-10% of peak stock or 91-100% of maximum pollution level (1)The most recent assessment estimated that the biomass of fish 10 years and older in the SBT biological stock is at 6–9 % of unfished levels (CCSBT 2014). The most recent estimate of spawning stock biomass is 8–12 % of unfished levels (CCSBT 2014). There has been a slight improvement in the estimated biomass of fish 10 years and older since the last assessment in 2011 (CCSBT 2011) although, the biological stock is below the interim target level agreed by the CCSBT and a significant trend of improvements in biomass is yet to be detected.
Seaflower MPAGovernanceSeaflower coral reefsMissingNO DATA
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR Green TurtleMissingIt is difficult to accurately assess the entire population size only from nesting data, since fluctuations in the number of females who prepared to breed may not be indicative of population trends. It is thought that the population of the Southern stock increased up to 2008, but now has started to reach a plateau (GBRMPA 2014). There are concerns about the nesting status on Raine Island, a highly important nesting location for the Northern stock (Limpus et al 2003), which may indicate that the population has reached a plateau and is in the early stages of decline (GBRMPA 2014).
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernanceLight Mantled Albatross91-100% of peak stock or 0-10% of maximum pollution level (10)It is impossible to accurately answer this question because there have been no albatross surveys at Heard Island since 2003/04 season. However, there is evidence that light mantled albatross are still at HIMI in significant numbers (a tourist cruise noted their presence in 2012; Heritage Island Expeditions Field Report 2012) and comparisons between counts in the 1950s and later surveys in 2001 and 2004 suggested the colonization of new nesting sites, which could indicate the population is stable and even increasing (see Woehler 2006).
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernanceKing PenguinMissingOriginal population size not known; also end condition not known due to lack of data.
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernancePatagonian Toothfish 61-70% of peak stock or 31-40% of maximum pollution level (7)In 2011 (the most recent year for which there is an estimate), spawning stock biomass was estimated at 63% (~54,000 tonnes; CCAMLR 2013). Note that given the trend over time (which shows a reduction in the spawning stock biomass by about 2% per year), spawning stock biomass would likely be around 0.57% in 2014.
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Sea Lion0-10% of peak stock or 91-100% of maximum pollution level (1)8 - The mean maximum total number of Australian sea lions counted (all age/sex classes) per breeding sites in 2012 conducted along the Bunda Cliffs (GABMP) Mackay et al. 2013. Australian sea lion abundance in the Bunda Cliffs region, GAB Marine Park. Technical Report Bunda Cliffs sub-population (GABMP) has experienced a 39% decline in mean maximum number of pups counted per site over 19 years, or ~64% decline over three generations
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard Kittiwake http://www.mosj.no/en/fauna/marine/black-legged-kittiwake.html
Seaflower MPAGovernanceSeaflower groupers NO DATA
Cenderwasih National ParkGovernanceCenderwasih coral cover31-40% of peak stock or 61-70% of maximum pollution level (4)hard coral cover 40.5 ± 12.5 in 2011 (Mangubhai et al. 2012).
Cenderwasih National ParkGovernanceCenderwasih target fishMissingNo baseline data
Falkland Islands squidGovernancePatagonian squid (Loligo gahi)81-90% of peak stock or 11-20% of maximum pollution level (9)Seem to be doing well and stable, but can't say independent of fishing activity. No long term stock assessment.
New Zealand squidGovernanceArrow Squid (Nototodarus spp.)91-100% of peak stock or 0-10% of maximum pollution level (10)No stock assessment, but no evidence of change or any impact of fishing. While landings have decreased since the last decade, are about the same as from the beginning of the snapshot.
California squidGovernanceCalifornia market squid (Loligo opalescens)91-100% of peak stock or 0-10% of maximum pollution level (10)No evidence stock decreased. Total landings 2005: 82,108 st Total landings 2014: 114,594 st
Pond aquaculture on Lombok, IndonesiaGovernanceLombok aquaculture irrigation canalsMissing
Pond aquaculture on Lombok, IndonesiaGovernanceLombok aquaculture irrigation canals 
Caete-Teperacu Extractive Reserve (RESEX) in Braganca, BrazilGovernanceMangrove forest in Bragança, BrazilMissing
Gili Trawangan Coastal TourismGovernanceCoral reefs, coast and small-island on and surrounding Gili Trawangan, IndonesiaMissing