| Forests in Indonesia | Governance | Indonesian "Adat" Communities | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | As discussed above, there is debate about this, although it seems likely that there were at least some negative effects (which may have been caused by broader patterns of displaement) |
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| Forests in Indonesia | Governance | Large Extractive Industries in Indonesia | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | This is a consensus of our sources. |
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| Forests in Indonesia | Governance | "New Order" Indonesian Central Government (1965-1998) | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | This finding is supported by all the relevant literature. |
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| Forests in Indonesia | Governance | Indonesian "Adat" Communities | 0-25% or Not very confident (1) | There is very little evidence about this actor group during this time period. |
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| Forests in Indonesia | Governance | Large Extractive Industries in Indonesia | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Even if we are not certain of the overall trend in Indonesian forest condition, or its overall cause, there is clear evidence that this group continues to contribute to worsening the condition of the commons. |
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| Forests in Indonesia | Governance | Civil society organizations in Indonesia | 0-25% or Not very confident (1) | |
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| Forests in Indonesia | Governance | "Reformasi" Indonesian Central Government (1998-2012) | 0-25% or Not very confident (1) | There is alot of debate about whether the government, or the broader governance system, is responsible for a decline and then a subsequent rise in deforestation. |
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| Forests in Indonesia | Governance | Indonesian Local entrepreneurs | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Although there is debate over the details of what is going on in Indonesia, there is general agreement that the emergence of this group has contributed to an overall free-for all in at least some regions of Indonesia, in terms of forest clearing. |
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| Forests in Indonesia | Governance | Indonesian District Governments | 0-25% or Not very confident (1) | |
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| Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT) | Governance | ICCAT Contracting Parties | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Although absolute values are often contested, relative values using a consistent methodology are generally reliable. |
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| Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT) | Governance | ICCAT Contracting Parties | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Although absolute values are often contested, relative values using a consistent methodology are generally reliable. |
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| Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT) | Governance | ICCAT Contracting Parties | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT) | Governance | ICCAT Western Members | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Relative changes in this snapshot are generally reliable, although the absolute figures may be contested. |
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| Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT) | Governance | ICCAT Eastern Members | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT) | Governance | ICCAT Eastern Members | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Montreal Protocol | Governance | Ozone Nation States | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | |
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| Montreal Protocol | Governance | Ozone Depleting Substance Industrial Producers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | |
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| Montreal Protocol | Governance | Ozone Secretariat | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | |
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| International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR) | Governance | ICPR nations (1976-1986) | | |
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| International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR) | Governance | Rhine chemical firms | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Linkage made by most of the authors reviewed |
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| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR government co-managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Effect based on zoning system, which is what GBRMPA and QPWS use for management. At the scale of the whole reef, too much land-based run-off (sedimentation, nutrients) negatively affects coral cover. Locally, though, no-take areas can increase coral cover by maintaining a healthy ecosystem. |
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| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR recreational fishers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Recreational fishing has limited direct effects on coral cover, and thus is unlikely to have influenced coral cover much. |
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| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR government co-managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR recreational fishers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Recreational fishing has limited direct effects on coral cover, and thus is unlikely to have influenced coral cover much. |
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| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR commercial fishers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR commercial fishers | 25-50% or Somewhat confident (2) | |
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| Montreal Protocol | Governance | Ozone Depleting Substance Industrial Producers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | |
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| Montreal Protocol | Governance | Ozone Nation States | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | |
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| Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) | Governance | Galapagos Artisan Fishermen | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | It is well documented that the sea cucumber fishery has crashed due to over-fishing (e.g., Hearn et al 2005, Shepherd et al 2005, Wolff et al 2011, Jones 2013) |
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| Macquarie Island Marine Park | Governance | Australian Toothfish Fishers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Wakatobi National Park | Governance | Wakatobi managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | High variation between years and sites, making true trend in coral cover difficult to determine. NGOs managing the environmental monitoring, use permanent transects and monitor frequently. Have invested a lot of money in the area. |
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| Wakatobi National Park | Governance | Wakatobi managers | | Check |
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| Wakatobi National Park | Governance | Wakatobi managers | 25-50% or Somewhat confident (2) | Two sources of evidence. TNC and Government report. Slight differences in amount of improvement but appears further declines in spawning numbers have been stopped. |
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| Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National Monument | Governance | NWHI Monument Co-Trusteeship | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Monument actions are well detailed. Lobster monitoring was fishery-dependent research, but ancedotal reports from scientists studying benthos say lobster not improved, probably correct - A. Wilhelm pers comm. |
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| Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) | Governance | GMR managers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Reports by Parks Service and interview with Stuart Banks |
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| Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) | Governance | GMR managers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Fishery remains closed.
(Shepherd et al 2004, Hearn et al 2005, Jones 2013) |
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| Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) | Governance | Galapagos Tourism Sector | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Numerous sources: CDF annual reports on turtle nesting numbers, Stuart Banks pers comm and websites http://www.igtoa.org/igtoa_in_action |
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| Wakatobi National Park | Governance | Wakatobi Bajau fishers | 25-50% or Somewhat confident (2) | Difficult to determine if the Bajau are actually responsible for destructive practices and the actual impact of this because they are a such a marginalised group and do not participate in government initiatives.
Lots of reports mentioning Bajau as main perpetrators of destructive and illegal fishing (Clifton 2013), but I believe compliance with no-take zones, which are the fish-spawning sites (and fairly small) is high? |
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| Wakatobi National Park | Governance | Wakatobi Bajau fishers | 25-50% or Somewhat confident (2) | There is a lack of information on green turtle populations within the park and also a lack of information on turtle offtake by the Bajau. Turtle nesting beaches are protected and are reported to be monitored, but could not find the data anywhere. |
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| Wakatobi National Park | Governance | Wakatobi Bajau fishers | 25-50% or Somewhat confident (2) | Some reports available though not as clear a trend for corals (high variation between sites and years). Also mixed reports on coral mining and blast fishing so difficult to determine current extent and prevalence. |
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| Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) | Governance | GMR managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Book chapter on Elasmobraches in Galapagos and interviews with people who have worked a long time in Galapagos (Alex Hearn and Stuart Banks) |
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| Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) | Governance | Galapagos Tourism Sector | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Shark tourism is big business for Galapagos (numerous reports e.g. Pen˜aherrera et al. 2013, Hearn et al. 2014). Huge lobbying effort by tourism sector for areas with high shark densities to be protected (Jones 2013, Hearn et al 2013). Continued positive effect is somewhat assumed. |
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| Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National Monument | Governance | NWHI Monument Co-Trusteeship | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Area is no take - numerous reports |
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| Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National Monument | Governance | NWHI Monument Co-Trusteeship | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Lots of references indicate population increasing and has been since closure of fishery in 1970s. |
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| Central California National Marine Sanctuaries | Governance | National Marine Sanctuaries Office of NOAA | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | |
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| Central California National Marine Sanctuaries | Governance | National Marine Sanctuaries Office of NOAA | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Central California National Marine Sanctuaries | Governance | California Sanctuary Recreational Users | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Central California National Marine Sanctuaries | Governance | California Academic Researchers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | This has been documents by the Sanctuary office. |
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| Central California National Marine Sanctuaries | Governance | California Academic Researchers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | |
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| Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004) | Governance | Raja Ampat Artisanal Fishers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Including interview with M.Erdmann who has worked in the region for ~14years |
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| Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004) | Governance | Raja Ampat Managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | reports indicate healthy cover and interview with M. Erdmann |
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| Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004) | Governance | Raja Ampat Tourism | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Revenues have been quite high and spending has been publicised by NGOs |
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| Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004) | Governance | Raja Ampat Artisanal Fishers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Multiple reports indicating poaching has dramatically declined, confirmed through interview with M.Erdmann. |
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| Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004) | Governance | Raja Ampat Managers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | multiple NGO reports indicate this trend and confirmed during interview with M.Erdmann |
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| Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004) | Governance | Raja Ampat Artisanal Fishers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Although fishing will always have a negative impact on fish stocks, local management is focussed on food security and sustainability |
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| Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004) | Governance | Raja Ampat Managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Central California National Marine Sanctuaries | Governance | California State and Federal Fisheries Agencies | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | |
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| Macquarie Island Marine Park | Governance | Australian Fisheries Management Authority | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Macquarie Island Marine Park | Governance | Macquarie Island Managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Macquarie Island Marine Park | Governance | Macquarie Island Managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Macquarie Island Marine Park | Governance | Australian Fisheries Management Authority | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Svalbard Nature Reserves | Governance | Svalbard Tourism | 25-50% or Somewhat confident (2) | It is difficult to determine (and to study scientifically) how much disturbing individual bears (and also cumulative disturbances over time) have on the population. |
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| Central California National Marine Sanctuaries | Governance | California Groundfish Fishermen | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Svalbard Nature Reserves | Governance | Svalbard Resource Managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR recreational fishers | 25-50% or Somewhat confident (2) | |
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| Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) | Governance | Galapagos Charles Darwin Foundation | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Multiple sources of info, including interviews with researchers from CDF (past and present) |
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| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR government co-managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | The GBRMP Authority produce an Outlook report every 5 years synthesis the vast data available on the state of the reef. |
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| Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters) | Governance | GABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Commercial Fishers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Southern right whale populations increasing around Australia at 7%, and limited evidence for negative impacts from commercial fishing. |
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| Svalbard Nature Reserves | Governance | Svalbard Shrimp Fishers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Although there is always uncertainty with any measurement, there are good estimates of shrimp population for the Barents Sea over time. This answer assumes that trends within the Barents Sea are indicative of those within the Nature Reserves. |
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| Svalbard Nature Reserves | Governance | Svalbard Resource Managers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | The shrimp stock in the Barents Sea has been at a relatively high level since 2005, and ICES has the last years recommended an annual catch up to 60 000 tons. Due to market challenges and low prices, the total annual catch has been just over 20 000 tons the recent years, only slightly more than a third of the scientists' recommendations.
http://www.fisheries.no/ecosystems-and-stocks/marine_stocks/shellfish/shrimp/#.VfxI2Zf08ms |
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| Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters) | Governance | GABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Director of National Parks | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Populations are increasing in the area. |
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| Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters) | Governance | GABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Commercial Fishers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Fishery quotas and catch are well-documented. Declines in SBT are well documented - both in spawning stock and biomass. Listed as critically endangered on the IUCN Red List. However, the major declines of SBT are unlikely due to Australian Commerical Fishers, but rather to decades of over fishing by many nations |
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| Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters) | Governance | GABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Director of National Parks | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Seaflower MPA | Governance | CORALINA | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | For the Old Providence and Santa Catalina region: coral cover dropped from 21.3% in 2000 to 6.4% in 2014 |
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| Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) | Governance | Galapagos Charles Darwin Foundation | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | CDF are the organisation responsible for most information known about sharks within GMR and advising on their management |
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| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR commercial fishers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR government co-managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR fisheries managers | 25-50% or Somewhat confident (2) | |
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| Macquarie Island Marine Park | Governance | Australian Toothfish Fishers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Given that there have been no incidental bycatch of seabirds and there is 100% observer coverage I can be fairly confident in asserting that toothfish fishers have not adversely affected |
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| Heard and McDonald Islands Marine Reserve | Governance | Australian Antarctic Division | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Heard and McDonald Islands Marine Reserve | Governance | Australian Fisheries Management Authority | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Heard and McDonald Islands Marine Reserve | Governance | Australian Toothfish Fishers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Heard and McDonald Islands Marine Reserve | Governance | Australian Antarctic Division | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) | Governance | Galapagos Charles Darwin Foundation | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Numerous sources. Fishery is considered depleted. CDF campaigned for stricter limits, but this resulted in high profile conflicts. |
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| Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National Monument | Governance | NWHI Researchers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Lots of reports produced and available online |
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| Heard and McDonald Islands Marine Reserve | Governance | Australian Toothfish Fishers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Heard and McDonald Islands Marine Reserve | Governance | Australian Fisheries Management Authority | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters) | Governance | GABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Director of National Parks | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Australian sea lion populations are declining - based on a global assessment of the species from data available for 23 sub-populations (accounting for ~48% of the species-wide pup production), total pup production has declined by 57% in three generations (Goldsworthy, unpublished data). |
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| Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters) | Governance | GABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Commercial Fishers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Gillnetting was identified as a key threat to Australian sea lions in 2005 (DEWHA 2008) and a study by Hamer et al (2011) found by catch levels a threat to the survival of the species.
SBT fishing is not a major threat to the sealion |
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| Svalbard Nature Reserves | Governance | Svalbard Resource Managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Svalbard Nature Reserves | Governance | Svalbard Tourism | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR commercial fishers | Not Applicable | |
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| Seaflower MPA | Governance | Seaflower artisanal fishers | 0-25% or Not very confident (1) | Do not have data to back it up. |
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| Seaflower MPA | Governance | Seaflower artisanal fishers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Based on the actual report. |
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| Seaflower MPA | Governance | CORALINA | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | Based on the actual report. |
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| Cenderwasih National Park | Governance | Cenderwasih managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Coral cover remains high (various sources) but overall difficult to find data on this case study. |
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| Cenderwasih National Park | Governance | Cenderwasih fishers | 25-50% or Somewhat confident (2) | Based on the lower dependence on marine reosurce by local fishers, and low population numbers - fairly certain that there's no major negative trend by local fishers. But there is a dearth of data for this case. |
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| Cenderwasih National Park | Governance | Cenderwasih managers | 25-50% or Somewhat confident (2) | Difficult to find data on this case study |
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| Cenderwasih National Park | Governance | Cenderwasih fishers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Fairly certain there is limited direct interaction with coral reefs - no extraction - confirmed through interviews. Based on the lower dependence on marine reosurce by local fishers, and low population numbers - fairly certain that there's no major negative trend by local fishers. But there is a dearth of data for this case. |
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| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR fisheries managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Falkland Islands squid | Governance | Falkland Islands Government (FIG) Fisheries Managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | Could be due to other factors, but likely overfishing would occur without managers and their in-season actions |
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| Falkland Islands squid | Governance | Patagonian Squid Trawlers | 25-50% or Somewhat confident (2) | |
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| New Zealand squid | Governance | New Zealand Arrow Squid Fishers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| New Zealand squid | Governance | New Zealand Fishery Managers | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| California squid | Governance | California Department of Fish and Wildlife Market Squid Managers | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | |
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| California squid | Governance | California market squid fishermen | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Pond aquaculture on Lombok, Indonesia | Governance | Indonesian Institute of Sciences - LIPI | 25-50% or Somewhat confident (2) | |
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| Pond aquaculture on Lombok, Indonesia | Governance | Lombok aquaculture farmers | Missing | |
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| Pond aquaculture on Lombok, Indonesia | Governance | Lombok aquaculture farmers | | |
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| Caete-Teperacu Extractive Reserve (RESEX) in Braganca, Brazil | Governance | Association of Users in the Caete-Teperacu RESEX (ASSUREMACATA) in Brazil | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Gili Trawangan Coastal Tourism | Governance | SCUBA diving businesses on Gili Trawangan | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Gili Trawangan Coastal Tourism | Governance | Gili Indah Dive Association (GIDA) | Missing | |
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| Gili Trawangan Coastal Tourism | Governance | Gili EcoTrust on Gili Trawangan | 75-100% or Almost certain (4) | |
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| Gili Trawangan Coastal Tourism | Governance | Gili Indah Dive Association (GIDA) | Missing | |
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| Gulf of Nicoya, Costa Rica fisheries governance | Governance | Isla Caballo AMPR Costa Rica | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Gulf of Nicoya, Costa Rica fisheries governance | Governance | Palito-Montero AMPR Costa Rica | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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| Gulf of Nicoya, Costa Rica fisheries governance | Governance | Paquera-Tambor AMPR Costa Rica | 50-75% or Very confident (3) | |
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