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Social-Ecological Systems Meta-Analysis Database: Variables

Variable TypeOrdinal
Variable Component TypeActor
Variable KindInteraction
ThemeOutcomes (learn about themes)
ProjectsSESMAD
QuestionHow confident are you in your answer regarding the effect of this actor group on the commons?
Select Options1 0-25% or Not very confident, 2 25-50% or Somewhat confident, 3 50-75% or Very confident, 4 75-100% or Almost certain
Unit
Role
ImportanceThis variable provides a measure of the coder's level of confidence in their coding of the impact of the actor group on the commons. Since this coding is necessarily a summary of subjective judgements made by the coders based on case analysis, a measure of certainty is warranted.
Definition

This field refers to the confidence the coder has in coding the variable ActorEffect, which is a measure of the effect of the actor group on the commons. We understand the estimate of confidence in this variable to be a measure of the coder's degree of confidence in the evidence they used to code ActorEffect. These should be based on the coder's evaluation of the likelihood of finding contradictory information. See Patt & Dessai (2005) for a discussion of similar estimates of uncertainty in the context of climate change communication.

Sectors

Theory Usages

TheoryValue Used

Case Usages

CaseInteraction TypeComponentValue UsedExplanation
Forests in IndonesiaGovernanceLarge Extractive Industries in Indonesia75-100% or Almost certain (4)This is a consensus of our sources.
Forests in IndonesiaGovernanceCivil society organizations in Indonesia0-25% or Not very confident (1)
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceCalifornia Academic Researchers75-100% or Almost certain (4)This has been documents by the Sanctuary office.
Forests in IndonesiaGovernanceIndonesian "Adat" Communities50-75% or Very confident (3)As discussed above, there is debate about this, although it seems likely that there were at least some negative effects (which may have been caused by broader patterns of displaement)
Seaflower MPAGovernanceCORALINA75-100% or Almost certain (4)Based on the actual report.
Forests in IndonesiaGovernance"New Order" Indonesian Central Government (1965-1998)75-100% or Almost certain (4)This finding is supported by all the relevant literature.
Forests in IndonesiaGovernanceIndonesian Local entrepreneurs75-100% or Almost certain (4)Although there is debate over the details of what is going on in Indonesia, there is general agreement that the emergence of this group has contributed to an overall free-for all in at least some regions of Indonesia, in terms of forest clearing.
Forests in IndonesiaGovernanceIndonesian "Adat" Communities0-25% or Not very confident (1)There is very little evidence about this actor group during this time period.
Seaflower MPAGovernanceSeaflower artisanal fishers75-100% or Almost certain (4)Based on the actual report.
Forests in IndonesiaGovernance"Reformasi" Indonesian Central Government (1998-2012)0-25% or Not very confident (1)There is alot of debate about whether the government, or the broader governance system, is responsible for a decline and then a subsequent rise in deforestation.
Forests in IndonesiaGovernanceIndonesian District Governments0-25% or Not very confident (1)
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceICCAT Contracting Parties 50-75% or Very confident (3)Although absolute values are often contested, relative values using a consistent methodology are generally reliable.
Forests in IndonesiaGovernanceLarge Extractive Industries in Indonesia75-100% or Almost certain (4)Even if we are not certain of the overall trend in Indonesian forest condition, or its overall cause, there is clear evidence that this group continues to contribute to worsening the condition of the commons.
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceICCAT Contracting Parties 50-75% or Very confident (3)
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceICCAT Eastern Members50-75% or Very confident (3)
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceCalifornia Groundfish Fishermen50-75% or Very confident (3)
Montreal ProtocolGovernanceOzone Nation States 75-100% or Almost certain (4)
Montreal ProtocolGovernanceOzone Depleting Substance Industrial Producers75-100% or Almost certain (4)
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceICCAT Western Members50-75% or Very confident (3)Relative changes in this snapshot are generally reliable, although the absolute figures may be contested.
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceICCAT Eastern Members50-75% or Very confident (3)
Montreal ProtocolGovernanceOzone Secretariat75-100% or Almost certain (4)
International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR)GovernanceICPR nations (1976-1986) 
International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR)GovernanceRhine chemical firms75-100% or Almost certain (4)Linkage made by most of the authors reviewed
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR government co-managers50-75% or Very confident (3)
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR recreational fishers50-75% or Very confident (3)Recreational fishing has limited direct effects on coral cover, and thus is unlikely to have influenced coral cover much.
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR government co-managers50-75% or Very confident (3)Effect based on zoning system, which is what GBRMPA and QPWS use for management. At the scale of the whole reef, too much land-based run-off (sedimentation, nutrients) negatively affects coral cover. Locally, though, no-take areas can increase coral cover by maintaining a healthy ecosystem.
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR commercial fishers50-75% or Very confident (3)
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR recreational fishers50-75% or Very confident (3)Recreational fishing has limited direct effects on coral cover, and thus is unlikely to have influenced coral cover much.
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceICCAT Contracting Parties 50-75% or Very confident (3)Although absolute values are often contested, relative values using a consistent methodology are generally reliable.
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR commercial fishers25-50% or Somewhat confident (2)
Montreal ProtocolGovernanceOzone Depleting Substance Industrial Producers75-100% or Almost certain (4)
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceCalifornia Academic Researchers75-100% or Almost certain (4)
Montreal ProtocolGovernanceOzone Nation States 75-100% or Almost certain (4)
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos Artisan Fishermen75-100% or Almost certain (4)It is well documented that the sea cucumber fishery has crashed due to over-fishing (e.g., Hearn et al 2005, Shepherd et al 2005, Wolff et al 2011, Jones 2013)
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi managers50-75% or Very confident (3)High variation between years and sites, making true trend in coral cover difficult to determine. NGOs managing the environmental monitoring, use permanent transects and monitor frequently. Have invested a lot of money in the area.
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernanceAustralian Toothfish Fishers50-75% or Very confident (3)
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceCalifornia Sanctuary Recreational Users50-75% or Very confident (3)
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National MonumentGovernanceNWHI Monument Co-Trusteeship 75-100% or Almost certain (4)Monument actions are well detailed. Lobster monitoring was fishery-dependent research, but ancedotal reports from scientists studying benthos say lobster not improved, probably correct - A. Wilhelm pers comm.
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGMR managers75-100% or Almost certain (4)Reports by Parks Service and interview with Stuart Banks
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernanceAustralian Fisheries Management Authority50-75% or Very confident (3)
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi managers Check
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi managers25-50% or Somewhat confident (2)Two sources of evidence. TNC and Government report. Slight differences in amount of improvement but appears further declines in spawning numbers have been stopped.
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGMR managers75-100% or Almost certain (4)Fishery remains closed. (Shepherd et al 2004, Hearn et al 2005, Jones 2013)
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National MonumentGovernanceNWHI Monument Co-Trusteeship 75-100% or Almost certain (4)Area is no take - numerous reports
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National MonumentGovernanceNWHI Monument Co-Trusteeship 75-100% or Almost certain (4)Lots of references indicate population increasing and has been since closure of fishery in 1970s.
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Director of National Parks 50-75% or Very confident (3)Australian sea lion populations are declining - based on a global assessment of the species from data available for 23 sub-populations (accounting for ~48% of the species-wide pup production), total pup production has declined by 57% in three generations (Goldsworthy, unpublished data).
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceNational Marine Sanctuaries Office of NOAA50-75% or Very confident (3)
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceNational Marine Sanctuaries Office of NOAA75-100% or Almost certain (4)
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi Bajau fishers25-50% or Somewhat confident (2)Some reports available though not as clear a trend for corals (high variation between sites and years). Also mixed reports on coral mining and blast fishing so difficult to determine current extent and prevalence.
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi Bajau fishers25-50% or Somewhat confident (2)Difficult to determine if the Bajau are actually responsible for destructive practices and the actual impact of this because they are a such a marginalised group and do not participate in government initiatives. Lots of reports mentioning Bajau as main perpetrators of destructive and illegal fishing (Clifton 2013), but I believe compliance with no-take zones, which are the fish-spawning sites (and fairly small) is high?
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi Bajau fishers25-50% or Somewhat confident (2)There is a lack of information on green turtle populations within the park and also a lack of information on turtle offtake by the Bajau. Turtle nesting beaches are protected and are reported to be monitored, but could not find the data anywhere.
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGMR managers50-75% or Very confident (3)Book chapter on Elasmobraches in Galapagos and interviews with people who have worked a long time in Galapagos (Alex Hearn and Stuart Banks)
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Commercial Fishers75-100% or Almost certain (4)Southern right whale populations increasing around Australia at 7%, and limited evidence for negative impacts from commercial fishing.
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Artisanal Fishers50-75% or Very confident (3)Although fishing will always have a negative impact on fish stocks, local management is focussed on food security and sustainability
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Managers50-75% or Very confident (3)
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Tourism50-75% or Very confident (3)Revenues have been quite high and spending has been publicised by NGOs
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Artisanal Fishers75-100% or Almost certain (4)Multiple reports indicating poaching has dramatically declined, confirmed through interview with M.Erdmann.
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Managers75-100% or Almost certain (4)multiple NGO reports indicate this trend and confirmed during interview with M.Erdmann
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Managers50-75% or Very confident (3)reports indicate healthy cover and interview with M. Erdmann
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceCalifornia State and Federal Fisheries Agencies75-100% or Almost certain (4)
Seaflower MPAGovernanceSeaflower artisanal fishers0-25% or Not very confident (1)Do not have data to back it up.
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernanceMacquarie Island Managers50-75% or Very confident (3)
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard Resource Managers50-75% or Very confident (3)
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Commercial Fishers50-75% or Very confident (3)Gillnetting was identified as a key threat to Australian sea lions in 2005 (DEWHA 2008) and a study by Hamer et al (2011) found by catch levels a threat to the survival of the species. SBT fishing is not a major threat to the sealion
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernanceAustralian Fisheries Management Authority50-75% or Very confident (3)
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernanceMacquarie Island Managers50-75% or Very confident (3)
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos Charles Darwin Foundation75-100% or Almost certain (4)CDF are the organisation responsible for most information known about sharks within GMR and advising on their management
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR government co-managers50-75% or Very confident (3)The GBRMP Authority produce an Outlook report every 5 years synthesis the vast data available on the state of the reef.
Seaflower MPAGovernanceCORALINA75-100% or Almost certain (4)For the Old Providence and Santa Catalina region: coral cover dropped from 21.3% in 2000 to 6.4% in 2014
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Director of National Parks 50-75% or Very confident (3)Populations are increasing in the area.
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernanceAustralian Toothfish Fishers50-75% or Very confident (3)
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernanceAustralian Antarctic Division50-75% or Very confident (3)
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernanceAustralian Fisheries Management Authority50-75% or Very confident (3)
Falkland Islands squidGovernanceFalkland Islands Government (FIG) Fisheries Managers50-75% or Very confident (3)Could be due to other factors, but likely overfishing would occur without managers and their in-season actions
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR recreational fishers25-50% or Somewhat confident (2)
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos Tourism Sector75-100% or Almost certain (4)Numerous sources: CDF annual reports on turtle nesting numbers, Stuart Banks pers comm and websites http://www.igtoa.org/igtoa_in_action
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernanceAustralian Toothfish Fishers75-100% or Almost certain (4)Given that there have been no incidental bycatch of seabirds and there is 100% observer coverage I can be fairly confident in asserting that toothfish fishers have not adversely affected
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernanceAustralian Fisheries Management Authority50-75% or Very confident (3)
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard Tourism25-50% or Somewhat confident (2)It is difficult to determine (and to study scientifically) how much disturbing individual bears (and also cumulative disturbances over time) have on the population.
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard Shrimp Fishers50-75% or Very confident (3)Although there is always uncertainty with any measurement, there are good estimates of shrimp population for the Barents Sea over time. This answer assumes that trends within the Barents Sea are indicative of those within the Nature Reserves.
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR commercial fishers50-75% or Very confident (3)
Cenderwasih National ParkGovernanceCenderwasih managers50-75% or Very confident (3)Coral cover remains high (various sources) but overall difficult to find data on this case study.
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard Resource Managers75-100% or Almost certain (4)The shrimp stock in the Barents Sea has been at a relatively high level since 2005, and ICES has the last years recommended an annual catch up to 60 000 tons. Due to market challenges and low prices, the total annual catch has been just over 20 000 tons the recent years, only slightly more than a third of the scientists' recommendations. http://www.fisheries.no/ecosystems-and-stocks/marine_stocks/shellfish/shrimp/#.VfxI2Zf08ms
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR government co-managers50-75% or Very confident (3)
Cenderwasih National ParkGovernanceCenderwasih fishers25-50% or Somewhat confident (2)Based on the lower dependence on marine reosurce by local fishers, and low population numbers - fairly certain that there's no major negative trend by local fishers. But there is a dearth of data for this case.
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR fisheries managers25-50% or Somewhat confident (2)
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard Tourism50-75% or Very confident (3)
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos Tourism Sector50-75% or Very confident (3)Shark tourism is big business for Galapagos (numerous reports e.g. PenĖœaherrera et al. 2013, Hearn et al. 2014). Huge lobbying effort by tourism sector for areas with high shark densities to be protected (Jones 2013, Hearn et al 2013). Continued positive effect is somewhat assumed.
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR commercial fishersNot Applicable
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos Charles Darwin Foundation75-100% or Almost certain (4)Multiple sources of info, including interviews with researchers from CDF (past and present)
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos Charles Darwin Foundation75-100% or Almost certain (4)Numerous sources. Fishery is considered depleted. CDF campaigned for stricter limits, but this resulted in high profile conflicts.
Cenderwasih National ParkGovernanceCenderwasih fishers50-75% or Very confident (3)Fairly certain there is limited direct interaction with coral reefs - no extraction - confirmed through interviews. Based on the lower dependence on marine reosurce by local fishers, and low population numbers - fairly certain that there's no major negative trend by local fishers. But there is a dearth of data for this case.
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National MonumentGovernanceNWHI Researchers75-100% or Almost certain (4)Lots of reports produced and available online
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernanceAustralian Toothfish Fishers50-75% or Very confident (3)
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernanceAustralian Antarctic Division50-75% or Very confident (3)
Cenderwasih National ParkGovernanceCenderwasih managers25-50% or Somewhat confident (2)Difficult to find data on this case study
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard Resource Managers50-75% or Very confident (3)
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Commercial Fishers75-100% or Almost certain (4)Fishery quotas and catch are well-documented. Declines in SBT are well documented - both in spawning stock and biomass. Listed as critically endangered on the IUCN Red List. However, the major declines of SBT are unlikely due to Australian Commerical Fishers, but rather to decades of over fishing by many nations
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Director of National Parks 50-75% or Very confident (3)
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR fisheries managers50-75% or Very confident (3)
California squidGovernanceCalifornia market squid fishermen50-75% or Very confident (3)
New Zealand squidGovernanceNew Zealand Arrow Squid Fishers50-75% or Very confident (3)
New Zealand squidGovernanceNew Zealand Fishery Managers50-75% or Very confident (3)
California squidGovernanceCalifornia Department of Fish and Wildlife Market Squid Managers75-100% or Almost certain (4)
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Artisanal Fishers50-75% or Very confident (3)Including interview with M.Erdmann who has worked in the region for ~14years
Falkland Islands squidGovernancePatagonian Squid Trawlers25-50% or Somewhat confident (2)