• Logged in as Unregistered User
  • Sign in

Social-Ecological Systems Meta-Analysis Database: Variables

Variable TypeOrdinal
Variable Component TypeEnvironmental Common
Variable KindInteraction
ThemeExternal (learn about themes)
ProjectsSESMAD, Fiji fisheries
QuestionHow has the size of human population that affects this commons changing during this snapshot?
Select Options1 Decreasing rapidly, 2 Decreasing, 3 Stable, 4 Increasing, 5 Increasing rapidly
Unit
Role
ImportanceRobert Malthus argued that population growth would exceed the productive capacity of the earth (Malthus, 1798). In contrast, Ester Boserup (1965) suggested that population pressure would lead to innovation. The Malthusian ‘catastrophe’ has been variously supported and contradicted by research in both small and large-scale systems (e.g., Pauly, D., McClanahan et al,, 2008; Cinner et al., 2009). Here, we posit that the rate of population change can act as a disturbance on a SES governance regime by increasing or decreasing the number of people dependent on or using resources and changing the number and diversity of people with a stake in resource governance.
Definition

"Population dynamics refers to the rate and nature of change in the number and distribution of people, in this case, using and managing a particular commons or social-ecological system. Increasing rapidly: more than 2.5% population growth rate per year Increasing: between 0.3 and 2.4% population growth per year Stable: between -0.2 and 0.2% population growth per year Decreasing: between -0.3 and -0.5 population growth per year Decreasing rapidly: less than -0.5% population growth per year."

Sectors

Theory Usages

TheoryValue Used

Case Usages

CaseInteraction TypeComponentValue UsedExplanation
Forests in IndonesiaGovernanceForests in IndonesiaIncreasing rapidly (5)Human population of Indonesia doubled (from roughly 100 million to roughly 200 million) during this period. population growth on the outer islands may have been higher.
Forests in IndonesiaGovernanceForests in IndonesiaIncreasing (4)The population of Indonesia grew at about 1.4% per annum from 2000-2010, lower than the rate of over 2% during the 1980s and 1990s.
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceWestern Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Increasing (4)
Galapagos Marine ReserveBiophysicalGalapagos Sea Cucumber 
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceEastern Atlantic Bluefin TunaIncreasing (4)
Community D (Fiji Fisheries)GovernanceCommunity D Fish ResourcesMissing
Community G (Fiji Fisheries)GovernanceCommunity G Fish ResourcesMissing
Montreal ProtocolBiophysicalOzoneIncreasing (4)General global population increase
Montreal ProtocolBiophysicalOzone Depleting SubstancesIncreasing (4)Global population growth.
Montreal ProtocolGovernanceOzone Depleting SubstancesIncreasing (4)
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceEastern Atlantic Bluefin TunaIncreasing (4)
Community H (Fiji Fisheries)GovernanceCommunity H Fish ResourcesMissing
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR coral coverIncreasing (4)
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceCalifornia Rocky Shores Ecosystem HealthIncreasing (4)1981 Population San Francisco: 686,915 2014 Population San Francisco: 825,000 San Francisco chosen because biggest city adjacent to Sanctuaries.
International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR)GovernanceRhine Point source pollutantsIncreasing (4)
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR target fishIncreasing (4)
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR coral coverIncreasing (4)
Montreal ProtocolBiophysicalOzone Depleting SubstancesIncreasing (4)General global population growth
Montreal ProtocolBiophysicalOzoneIncreasing (4)General global population increase
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR target fishIncreasing (4)
Montreal ProtocolGovernanceOzone Depleting SubstancesIncreasing (4)
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos Sea CucumberIncreasing (4)From 1999 to 2005, the population in Galapagos grew by 60%. The population growth rate was 5.9% 1990-2001, but has slowed to 3.3% 2001-2010 (Galapagos Conservancy Report 2011-2012).
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi coral coverStable (3)Clifton pers comm considers population to be stable in WNP Annual population growth rate in south-east Sulawesi was 2% during 2000–2005,exceeding the national average of 1.3% -cited in Clifton 2013.
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernancePatagonian Toothfish Stable (3)
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernanceMacquarie Island Royal PenguinStable (3)Population around Macquarie Island has not changed.
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernanceLight Mantled AlbatrossStable (3)There has been no change in the human population on or surrounding Macquarie Island. However, there has been a general increase in fishing effort in the circumpolar region that could affect seabirds on their migrations.
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National MonumentGovernanceNWHI Lobster FisheryStable (3)There is no direct human population in the NWHI aside from the research base on Midway Island. Lobster fishery is closed.
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National MonumentGovernanceNWHI Green TurtleStable (3)Uninhabitated atolls - no change in numbers
International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR)BiophysicalRhine Non-point source pollutants 
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National MonumentGovernanceNWHI Trophic DensityStable (3)The islands are uninhabited
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi Green TurtleStable (3)Clifton pers comm considers population to be stable in WNP Annual population growth rate in south-east Sulawesi was 2% during 2000–2005, exceeding the national average of 1.3% -cited in Clifton 2013. Couldn't find more recent data, but assume growth rate remains similar?
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos SharksIncreasing (4)From 1999 to 2005, the population in Galapagos grew by 60%. The population growth rate was 5.9% 1990-2001, but has slowed to 3.3% 2001-2010 (Galapagos Conservancy Report 2011-2012).
Community A (Fiji fisheries)GovernanceCommunity A Fish ResourcesMissing
Community C (Fiji Fisheries)GovernanceCommunity C Fish ResourcesMissing
Community F (Fiji Fisheries)GovernanceCommunity F Fish ResourcesMissing
Community B (Fiji Fisheries)GovernanceCommunity B Fish ResourcesMissing
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Green TurtleStable (3)
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Reef Fish Stable (3)
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard Polar BearIncreasing rapidly (5)During the snapshot (2004-2012), the number of tourists on overseas cruises (larger boats) increased by 40%, and on expedition cruises (smaller boats) increased by 80% (Sysselmannen pa Svalbard 2013c ). Although these numbers are for Svalbard as a whole, they likely reflect the increases in the Nature Reserves.
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Coral CoverStable (3)The census in 2001 showed that total population in Raja Ampat was 47,771 with an average increase rate of 0.32% (Pemda Raja Ampat, 2002). http://whc.unesco.org/en/tentativelists/2003/
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard ShrimpIncreasing (4)Shrimp fisheries enter into the global markets for shrimp; globally, human population has been increasing.
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernancePatagonian Toothfish Stable (3)During the snapshot, the size of the fishery has remained the same (two companies and 3-4 vessels).
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceCalifornia Humpback WhaleIncreasing (4)1981 Population San Francisco: 686,915 2014 Population San Francisco: 825,000 San Francisco chosen because is the biggest city adjacent to Sanctuaries.
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceCalifornia Groundfish HabitatIncreasing (4)1981 Population San Francisco: 686,915 2014 Population San Francisco: 825,000 San Francisco chosen because is the biggest city adjacent to Sanctuaries.
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernanceLight Mantled AlbatrossStable (3)There is no human population on the Heard and McDonald Islands and no active science base. There has been some visitation by tourist vessels, but only sporadically, and there is a regular (annual) fishery for toothfish and icefish.
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos Green TurtleIncreasing (4)From 1999 to 2005, the population in Galapagos grew by 60%. There are now stricter controls on immigration. Tourism numbers have also increased: from 40,000 in 1990 to more than 145,000 in 2006 http://www.galapagos.org/conservation/tourism-growth/
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Southern Right WhaleIncreasing (4)The size of the Australian population has increased (http://www.abs.gov.au/), however, the number of domestic and international tourists to the Eyre Peninsula, in which the GABMP (CW) is located, has decreased slightly during this snapshot (Eyre Peninsula Regional Tourism Profile - tourism.sa.gov.au).
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Southern Bluefin TunaIncreasing (4)The size of human population that affects this commons has increased during this snapshot. There has been a global population increase and the size of the Australian population has also increased (http://www.abs.gov.au/).
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard KittiwakeIncreasing rapidly (5)During the snapshot (2004-2012), the number of tourists on overseas cruises (larger boats) increased by 40%, and on expedition cruises (smaller boats) increased by 80% (Sysselmannen pa Svalbard 2013c). Although these numbers are for Svalbard as a whole, they likely reflect the increases in the Nature Reserves.
Seaflower MPAGovernanceSeaflower coral reefsStable (3)These commons are not directly harvested although they can be damaged by fishing gear, anchoring, or tourism activities.
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi fish spawningStable (3)Clifton pers comm considers population to be stable in WNP Annual population growth rate in south-east Sulawesi was 2% during 2000–2005,exceeding the national average of 1.3% -cited in Clifton 2013.
Cenderwasih National ParkGovernanceCenderwasih coral coverStable (3)Increasing in Papua at 1.84% (2014 est.) but a low rate and immigration is more likely into big cities
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernanceKing PenguinNot Applicable
Falkland Islands squidGovernancePatagonian squid (Loligo gahi)Increasing (4)Falkland Islands population has gone from 1961 people in 1986 to 2840 in 2012. The largest market, Spain, has gone from about 38.5 million in 1986 to about 46.5 million in 2015 (TradingEconomics 2016). Increasing at a rate of about 1.7% for Falkland Islands and 0.7% for Spain
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Sea LionIncreasing (4)The size of the Australian population has increased (http://www.abs.gov.au/), however, the number of domestic and international tourists to the Eyre Peninsula, in which the GABMP (CW) is located, has decreased slightly during this snapshot (Eyre Peninsula Regional Tourism Profile - tourism.sa.gov.au).
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR Green TurtleIncreasing (4)Since 2004, the population of Queensland has increased about 2% per year (State of Queensland 2015).
Cenderwasih National ParkGovernanceCenderwasih target fishStable (3)Increasing in Papua at 1.84% (2014 est.) but a low rate and immigration is more likely into big cities
New Zealand squidGovernanceArrow Squid (Nototodarus spp.)Increasing (4)1.43% change 2015: 4.5957 million 1987: 3.2744 million
California squidGovernanceCalifornia market squid (Loligo opalescens)Increasing (4)0.92% growth rate 2014: 38.8 million 2005: 35.83 million 1986: 32.49 million 1986: 27.1 million
Community E (Fiji Fisheries)GovernanceCommunity E Fish ResourcesMissing
Seaflower MPAGovernanceSeaflower groupersMissingNO DATA