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Social-Ecological Systems Meta-Analysis Database: Variables

Variable TypeOrdinal
Variable Component TypeEnvironmental Common
Variable KindInteraction
ThemeOutcomes (learn about themes)
ProjectsSESMAD, Fiji fisheries
QuestionHow confident are you in your answer regarding the effectiveness of this governance system for this commons?
Select Options1 Not very confident, 2 Somewhat confident, 3 Very confident, 4 Almost certain
Unit
Role
ImportanceThis variable provides a measure of the coder's level of confidence in their coding of the impact of the governance system on the commons.
Definition

"This variable refers to the confidence the coder has in coding the variable ECConditionEffect, which is a measure of the the effect of the governance system on the commons. We understand the estimate of confidence in this variable to be a measure of the coder's degree of certainty in the evidence they used to code ECConditionEffect. These should be based on the coder's evaluation of the likelihood of finding contradictory information. See Patt & Dessai (2005) for a discussion of similar estimates of uncertainty in the context of climate change communication. Not very confident: Evidence about the effect of the governance system on the commons is contradictory or very limited. Somewhat confident: some evidence is available and fairly consistent. Very confident: multiple reliable sources of evdience exist and support the same effect. Almost certain: many reliable sources of evidence exist and all point to the same effect."

Sectors

Theory Usages

TheoryValue Used

Case Usages

CaseInteraction TypeComponentValue UsedExplanation
Forests in IndonesiaGovernanceForests in IndonesiaAlmost certain (4)This is based on a consensus of our sources
Forests in IndonesiaGovernanceForests in IndonesiaNot very confident (1)There are conflicting accounts of both the condition changes of the resource during this period, as well as the impact of governance (as opposed to economic forces) on those changes. See Fleischman et al. (under review) for details. Given this uncertainty, we are not very confident in our estimates.
Seaflower MPAGovernanceSeaflower groupersVery confident (3)Based on the actual report.
Montreal ProtocolBiophysicalOzone Depleting SubstancesAlmost certain (4)ODS production is monitored regularly and we can be very confident that ODS production levels have fallen given monitoring data and the results observed indirectly in the ozone layer (lack of further deterioration than would be expected).
Galapagos Marine ReserveBiophysicalGalapagos Sea Cucumber 
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceWestern Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Very confident (3)Although uncertainty remains regarding the absolute size of stocks, we can assess relative performance with a reasonable degree of confidence given consistent estimation methods.
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceEastern Atlantic Bluefin TunaVery confident (3)
Community D (Fiji Fisheries)GovernanceCommunity D Fish ResourcesVery confident (3)
Community G (Fiji Fisheries)GovernanceCommunity G Fish ResourcesVery confident (3)
Montreal ProtocolGovernanceOzone Depleting SubstancesAlmost certain (4)
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT)GovernanceEastern Atlantic Bluefin TunaVery confident (3)
Montreal ProtocolBiophysicalOzoneAlmost certain (4)
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR coral coverVery confident (3)
International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR)GovernanceRhine Point source pollutantsVery confident (3)
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceCalifornia Rocky Shores Ecosystem HealthSomewhat confident (2)While broadly the rocky shores habitat is in good/fair condition and oil spills have been avoided largely, a number of diseases have declined ecosystem health in the last decade.
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR target fish 
Montreal ProtocolBiophysicalOzoneVery confident (3)
Montreal ProtocolBiophysicalOzone Depleting SubstancesVery confident (3)
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR target fishSomewhat confident (2)
Montreal ProtocolGovernanceOzone Depleting SubstancesAlmost certain (4)Although the absolute value of ODS emissions is not known, the general consensus is that ODS emissions increased over this time period.
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi fish spawningVery confident (3)Data is limited and some report stable populations (TNC) while others report a small improvement. http://www.reefresilience.org/case-studies/indonesia-mpa-management/ Subhan 2014 Interview confirmed a possible slight improvement in fish, but in light of a major decline before this snap shot
Community H (Fiji Fisheries)GovernanceCommunity H Fish ResourcesVery confident (3)
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernancePatagonian Toothfish Somewhat confident (2)
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernanceLight Mantled AlbatrossVery confident (3)
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National MonumentGovernanceNWHI Green TurtleAlmost certain (4)Exploitation stopped in the 1970s and since then nesting abundance has been increasing linearly at approximately 5.7% (Balazs and Chaloupka 2004). It is estimated that Hawaiian Green Turtles are currently at 83% of their pre-exploitation numbers (Balazs and Chaloupka 2004)
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Green TurtleVery confident (3)NGO reports and monitoring indicate improvements and decline in poaching. Alternative meat (pigs) now available in some villages.
International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR)BiophysicalRhine Non-point source pollutants 
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos Green TurtleVery confident (3)Reports indicate stability and Stuart Banks interview indicated turtle populations were stable
Macquarie Island Marine ParkGovernanceMacquarie Island Royal PenguinVery confident (3)Although there is considerable uncertainty regarding the point estimate there appears to be a broad consensus that the population is stable.
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Sea LionVery confident (3)
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos SharksSomewhat confident (2)Overall decline in sharks is likely, although a solid trend is difficult to determine due to lack of population trend data. Reports of increases in reef sharks, probably isn't as significant as the declines in many other species such as hammerheads. Not enough data on the highly migratory species e.g. Mako or Blue sharks to make any inferences. Alex Hearn pers comm
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National MonumentGovernanceNWHI Trophic DensityVery confident (3)based on numerous reports and studies
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi coral coverVery confident (3)Some reports with overal stable trend in coral, and supported by interview.
Community A (Fiji fisheries)GovernanceCommunity A Fish ResourcesVery confident (3)
Community E (Fiji Fisheries)GovernanceCommunity E Fish ResourcesVery confident (3)
Community C (Fiji Fisheries)GovernanceCommunity C Fish ResourcesVery confident (3)
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Coral CoverVery confident (3)numerous reports (WWF report?) and interview with M.Erdmann (~14yrs experience working in RA)
Community F (Fiji Fisheries)GovernanceCommunity F Fish ResourcesVery confident (3)
Community B (Fiji Fisheries)GovernanceCommunity B Fish ResourcesVery confident (3)
Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004)GovernanceRaja Ampat Reef Fish Very confident (3)Interview with Mark Erdmann who has been workign in the are for ~14years. WWF monitoring report?
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceCalifornia Groundfish HabitatVery confident (3)
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Southern Bluefin TunaVery confident (3)the dramatic decline in the total population of Southern Bluefin Tuna to 7–15% of the 1960 parental biomass is well documented (FSC 2009)
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR coral coverVery confident (3)Monitoring of reef cover is quite good. See paper by De'ath et al http://www.pnas.org/content/109/44/17995.full
Central California National Marine Sanctuaries GovernanceCalifornia Humpback WhaleAlmost certain (4)Almost certain because some uncertainty regarding rather it was the Sanctuary management plan, or other external measures which have led to this increasing population.
Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National MonumentGovernanceNWHI Lobster FisheryVery confident (3)Numerous reports indicate no increase in populations, although these are ancedotal they are from scientists studying the benthos where lobster would be frequented. Despite continual monitoring by NOAA there appear no population estimates since the closure of the fishery
Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters)GovernanceGABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Southern Right WhaleVery confident (3)
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernanceLight Mantled AlbatrossSomewhat confident (2)The lack of data makes it impossible to be confident, but the evidence that is available suggests the population is stable or increasing (between 10-100 light-mantled sooty albatross were frequently spotted by tourists in 2012).
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard ShrimpSomewhat confident (2)The biomass index indicates that the system has improved from the beginning to the end. However, it fluctuated considerably within this time period, and has fluctuated even more in the past.
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard KittiwakeAlmost certain (4)Good annual monitoring. Although this trend is averaged over the whole area, some sites and increased, whereas others have decreased.
Falkland Islands squidGovernancePatagonian squid (Loligo gahi)Very confident (3)
Great Barrier Reef Marine ParkGovernanceGBR Green TurtleAlmost certain (4)Confidence of data in Outlook report 2014 for turtles is considered: Adequate high-quality evidence and high level of consensus. Within the GBR there has been monitoring of turtles for 25+ years (Limpus et al 2003). Information is based on nesting numbers and is highly variable between years. To date, there have been no detectable declines in the number of nesting green turtles at Great Barrier Reef nest monitoring sites. However, the 20 to 25 years of data for the key sites (Raine Island, Heron Island) do not cover a single generation for green turtles, and trends are difficult to determine with the large fluctuations in nesting numbers that can occur because of the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
Cenderwasih National ParkGovernanceCenderwasih coral coverVery confident (3)Fairly confident in response and hard coral cover is often mentioned to be high. WWF 2015 report for BHS suggests no signifcant changes across the region.
Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR)GovernanceGalapagos Sea CucumberAlmost certain (4)Many reports document the decline in the fishery, e.g. see catch data in Galapagos Report 2011-2012 (Galapagos Conservancy) http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/180373/0
Seaflower MPAGovernanceSeaflower coral reefsVery confident (3)Coral cover estimates are based on repeated monitoring surveys.
Wakatobi National Park GovernanceWakatobi Green TurtleSomewhat confident (2)information from reports/interviews - very little data on turtles and no results from long-term monitoring for firm conclusions. Only 100 nests/season. http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/asiaandthepacific/indonesia/explore/safe-haven-for-turtles.xml
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernanceKing PenguinSomewhat confident (2)See above.
Svalbard Nature ReservesGovernanceSvalbard Polar BearVery confident (3)There are few published studies on the polar bear population, and the language in the recent monitoring report reflects this high degree of uncertainty (MOSJ 2013c [Online]).
Cenderwasih National ParkGovernanceCenderwasih target fishSomewhat confident (2)Despite involvement of NGOs there is little monitoring data available. A recent status report (2015) on the Birds Head MPAs does not include time series data for Cenderawasih. An interview with Erdmann said slight improvements, and for the BHS trends appear stable so coded as no change rather than an increase due to lack of data to confirm increasing trend.
New Zealand squidGovernanceArrow Squid (Nototodarus spp.)Somewhat confident (2)
California squidGovernanceCalifornia market squid (Loligo opalescens)Very confident (3)
Heard and McDonald Islands Marine ReserveGovernancePatagonian Toothfish Very confident (3)My answer is based directly on the annual CCAMLR fishery report for toothfish at HIMI, which reports the spawning stock biomass trend since the beginning of the fishery.