| Variable Type | Ordinal |
|---|---|
| Variable Component Type | Environmental Common |
| Variable Kind | Interaction |
| Theme | Outcomes (learn about themes) |
| Projects | SESMAD, Fiji fisheries |
| Question | How confident are you in your answer regarding the effectiveness of this governance system for this commons? |
| Select Options | 1 Not very confident, 2 Somewhat confident, 3 Very confident, 4 Almost certain |
| Unit | |
| Role | |
| Importance | This variable provides a measure of the coder's level of confidence in their coding of the impact of the governance system on the commons. |
| Definition | "This variable refers to the confidence the coder has in coding the variable ECConditionEffect, which is a measure of the the effect of the governance system on the commons. We understand the estimate of confidence in this variable to be a measure of the coder's degree of certainty in the evidence they used to code ECConditionEffect. These should be based on the coder's evaluation of the likelihood of finding contradictory information. See Patt & Dessai (2005) for a discussion of similar estimates of uncertainty in the context of climate change communication. Not very confident: Evidence about the effect of the governance system on the commons is contradictory or very limited. Somewhat confident: some evidence is available and fairly consistent. Very confident: multiple reliable sources of evdience exist and support the same effect. Almost certain: many reliable sources of evidence exist and all point to the same effect." |
| Sectors |
Theory Usages
| Theory | Value Used |
|---|
Associated Studies
| Study Citation |
|---|
Case Usages
| Case | Interaction Type | Component | Value Used | Explanation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forests in Indonesia | Governance | Forests in Indonesia | Almost certain (4) | This is based on a consensus of our sources |
| Forests in Indonesia | Governance | Forests in Indonesia | Not very confident (1) | There are conflicting accounts of both the condition changes of the resource during this period, as well as the impact of governance (as opposed to economic forces) on those changes. See Fleischman et al. (under review) for details. Given this uncertainty, we are not very confident in our estimates. |
| Galapagos Marine Reserve | Biophysical | Galapagos Sea Cucumber | ||
| Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT) | Governance | Western Atlantic Bluefin Tuna | Very confident (3) | Although uncertainty remains regarding the absolute size of stocks, we can assess relative performance with a reasonable degree of confidence given consistent estimation methods. |
| Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT) | Governance | Eastern Atlantic Bluefin Tuna | Very confident (3) | |
| Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (ICCAT) | Governance | Eastern Atlantic Bluefin Tuna | Very confident (3) | |
| Montreal Protocol | Biophysical | Ozone | Almost certain (4) | |
| Montreal Protocol | Biophysical | Ozone Depleting Substances | Almost certain (4) | ODS production is monitored regularly and we can be very confident that ODS production levels have fallen given monitoring data and the results observed indirectly in the ozone layer (lack of further deterioration than would be expected). |
| Montreal Protocol | Governance | Ozone Depleting Substances | Almost certain (4) | |
| International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR) | Governance | Rhine Point source pollutants | Very confident (3) | |
| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR coral cover | Very confident (3) | |
| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR coral cover | Very confident (3) | Monitoring of reef cover is quite good. See paper by De'ath et al http://www.pnas.org/content/109/44/17995.full |
| Montreal Protocol | Biophysical | Ozone | Very confident (3) | |
| Montreal Protocol | Biophysical | Ozone Depleting Substances | Very confident (3) | |
| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR target fish | ||
| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR target fish | Somewhat confident (2) | |
| Montreal Protocol | Governance | Ozone Depleting Substances | Almost certain (4) | Although the absolute value of ODS emissions is not known, the general consensus is that ODS emissions increased over this time period. |
| Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) | Governance | Galapagos Sea Cucumber | Almost certain (4) | Many reports document the decline in the fishery, e.g. see catch data in Galapagos Report 2011-2012 (Galapagos Conservancy) http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/180373/0 |
| Macquarie Island Marine Park | Governance | Patagonian Toothfish | Somewhat confident (2) | |
| Macquarie Island Marine Park | Governance | Light Mantled Albatross | Very confident (3) | |
| Macquarie Island Marine Park | Governance | Macquarie Island Royal Penguin | Very confident (3) | Although there is considerable uncertainty regarding the point estimate there appears to be a broad consensus that the population is stable. |
| Wakatobi National Park | Governance | Wakatobi coral cover | Very confident (3) | Some reports with overal stable trend in coral, and supported by interview. |
| Wakatobi National Park | Governance | Wakatobi fish spawning | Very confident (3) | Data is limited and some report stable populations (TNC) while others report a small improvement. http://www.reefresilience.org/case-studies/indonesia-mpa-management/ Subhan 2014 Interview confirmed a possible slight improvement in fish, but in light of a major decline before this snap shot |
| Wakatobi National Park | Governance | Wakatobi Green Turtle | Somewhat confident (2) | information from reports/interviews - very little data on turtles and no results from long-term monitoring for firm conclusions. Only 100 nests/season. http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/asiaandthepacific/indonesia/explore/safe-haven-for-turtles.xml |
| Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National Monument | Governance | NWHI Lobster Fishery | Very confident (3) | Numerous reports indicate no increase in populations, although these are ancedotal they are from scientists studying the benthos where lobster would be frequented. Despite continual monitoring by NOAA there appear no population estimates since the closure of the fishery |
| Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) | Governance | Galapagos Green Turtle | Very confident (3) | Reports indicate stability and Stuart Banks interview indicated turtle populations were stable |
| International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR) | Biophysical | Rhine Non-point source pollutants | ||
| Galapagos Marine Reserve (GMR) | Governance | Galapagos Sharks | Somewhat confident (2) | Overall decline in sharks is likely, although a solid trend is difficult to determine due to lack of population trend data. Reports of increases in reef sharks, probably isn't as significant as the declines in many other species such as hammerheads. Not enough data on the highly migratory species e.g. Mako or Blue sharks to make any inferences. Alex Hearn pers comm |
| Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National Monument | Governance | NWHI Trophic Density | Very confident (3) | based on numerous reports and studies |
| Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) Marine National Monument | Governance | NWHI Green Turtle | Almost certain (4) | Exploitation stopped in the 1970s and since then nesting abundance has been increasing linearly at approximately 5.7% (Balazs and Chaloupka 2004). It is estimated that Hawaiian Green Turtles are currently at 83% of their pre-exploitation numbers (Balazs and Chaloupka 2004) |
| Central California National Marine Sanctuaries | Governance | California Humpback Whale | Almost certain (4) | Almost certain because some uncertainty regarding rather it was the Sanctuary management plan, or other external measures which have led to this increasing population. |
| Central California National Marine Sanctuaries | Governance | California Rocky Shores Ecosystem Health | Somewhat confident (2) | While broadly the rocky shores habitat is in good/fair condition and oil spills have been avoided largely, a number of diseases have declined ecosystem health in the last decade. |
| Community A (Fiji fisheries) | Governance | Community A Fish Resources | Very confident (3) | |
| Community B (Fiji Fisheries) | Governance | Community B Fish Resources | Very confident (3) | |
| Community C (Fiji Fisheries) | Governance | Community C Fish Resources | Very confident (3) | |
| Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004) | Governance | Raja Ampat Coral Cover | Very confident (3) | numerous reports (WWF report?) and interview with M.Erdmann (~14yrs experience working in RA) |
| Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004) | Governance | Raja Ampat Green Turtle | Very confident (3) | NGO reports and monitoring indicate improvements and decline in poaching. Alternative meat (pigs) now available in some villages. |
| Raja Ampat (National Act No. 32 2004) | Governance | Raja Ampat Reef Fish | Very confident (3) | Interview with Mark Erdmann who has been workign in the are for ~14years. WWF monitoring report? |
| Central California National Marine Sanctuaries | Governance | California Groundfish Habitat | Very confident (3) | |
| Svalbard Nature Reserves | Governance | Svalbard Polar Bear | Very confident (3) | There are few published studies on the polar bear population, and the language in the recent monitoring report reflects this high degree of uncertainty (MOSJ 2013c [Online]). |
| Community F (Fiji Fisheries) | Governance | Community F Fish Resources | Very confident (3) | |
| Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters) | Governance | GABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Southern Right Whale | Very confident (3) | |
| Svalbard Nature Reserves | Governance | Svalbard Shrimp | Somewhat confident (2) | The biomass index indicates that the system has improved from the beginning to the end. However, it fluctuated considerably within this time period, and has fluctuated even more in the past. |
| Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters) | Governance | GABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Southern Bluefin Tuna | Very confident (3) | the dramatic decline in the total population of Southern Bluefin Tuna to 7–15% of the 1960 parental biomass is well documented (FSC 2009) |
| Seaflower MPA | Governance | Seaflower coral reefs | Very confident (3) | Coral cover estimates are based on repeated monitoring surveys. |
| Great Barrier Reef Marine Park | Governance | GBR Green Turtle | Almost certain (4) | Confidence of data in Outlook report 2014 for turtles is considered: Adequate high-quality evidence and high level of consensus. Within the GBR there has been monitoring of turtles for 25+ years (Limpus et al 2003). Information is based on nesting numbers and is highly variable between years. To date, there have been no detectable declines in the number of nesting green turtles at Great Barrier Reef nest monitoring sites. However, the 20 to 25 years of data for the key sites (Raine Island, Heron Island) do not cover a single generation for green turtles, and trends are difficult to determine with the large fluctuations in nesting numbers that can occur because of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. |
| Heard and McDonald Islands Marine Reserve | Governance | Light Mantled Albatross | Somewhat confident (2) | The lack of data makes it impossible to be confident, but the evidence that is available suggests the population is stable or increasing (between 10-100 light-mantled sooty albatross were frequently spotted by tourists in 2012). |
| Heard and McDonald Islands Marine Reserve | Governance | King Penguin | Somewhat confident (2) | See above. |
| Heard and McDonald Islands Marine Reserve | Governance | Patagonian Toothfish | Very confident (3) | My answer is based directly on the annual CCAMLR fishery report for toothfish at HIMI, which reports the spawning stock biomass trend since the beginning of the fishery. |
| Great Australian Bight Marine Park (GABMP) (Commonwealth Waters) | Governance | GABMP (Commonwealth Waters) Sea Lion | Very confident (3) | |
| Svalbard Nature Reserves | Governance | Svalbard Kittiwake | Almost certain (4) | Good annual monitoring. Although this trend is averaged over the whole area, some sites and increased, whereas others have decreased. |
| Community D (Fiji Fisheries) | Governance | Community D Fish Resources | Very confident (3) | |
| Community E (Fiji Fisheries) | Governance | Community E Fish Resources | Very confident (3) | |
| Community G (Fiji Fisheries) | Governance | Community G Fish Resources | Very confident (3) | |
| Community H (Fiji Fisheries) | Governance | Community H Fish Resources | Very confident (3) | |
| Seaflower MPA | Governance | Seaflower groupers | Very confident (3) | Based on the actual report. |
| Cenderwasih National Park | Governance | Cenderwasih coral cover | Very confident (3) | Fairly confident in response and hard coral cover is often mentioned to be high. WWF 2015 report for BHS suggests no signifcant changes across the region. |
| Cenderwasih National Park | Governance | Cenderwasih target fish | Somewhat confident (2) | Despite involvement of NGOs there is little monitoring data available. A recent status report (2015) on the Birds Head MPAs does not include time series data for Cenderawasih. An interview with Erdmann said slight improvements, and for the BHS trends appear stable so coded as no change rather than an increase due to lack of data to confirm increasing trend. |
| Falkland Islands squid | Governance | Patagonian squid (Loligo gahi) | Very confident (3) | |
| New Zealand squid | Governance | Arrow Squid (Nototodarus spp.) | Somewhat confident (2) | |
| California squid | Governance | California market squid (Loligo opalescens) | Very confident (3) | |
| Pond aquaculture on Lombok, Indonesia | Governance | Lombok aquaculture irrigation canals | Somewhat confident (2) | |
| Pond aquaculture on Lombok, Indonesia | Governance | Lombok aquaculture irrigation canals | ||
| Caete-Teperacu Extractive Reserve (RESEX) in Braganca, Brazil | Governance | Mangrove forest in Bragança, Brazil | Missing | |
| Gili Trawangan Coastal Tourism | Governance | Coral reefs, coast and small-island on and surrounding Gili Trawangan, Indonesia | Somewhat confident (2) | |
| Gulf of Nicoya, Costa Rica fisheries governance | Governance | Gulf of Nicoya fisheries | Somewhat confident (2) |